The competition between
tech companies reminds me a lot of the board game Risk. Do you remember Risk? I played it a lot back in law school. It is a battle for world domination between
countries/players. Think Apple, Google,
Facebook and Amazon as the superpowers. Microsoft
as the once-powerful country in decline. The smaller companies that wish to
survive find defensible niches, or strike alliances with the big guys. The big guys each started from a core
platform, and extend out from there.
Apple's core is hardware, with its proprietary software embedded in
it. Google's core is search, and an
ever-expanding array of internet/cloud-based tools and software. Facebook's core is social media. Amazon's core is e-commerce.
Here's a blog post that
suggests the Android platform is in trouble.
Why? Because as the enterprise
market (i.e., corporate IT departments) starts to open up and support
non-Blackberry phones, the IT folks who manage it prefer the Apple world
because it is easier to manage. There
are only a few flavors of IOS, whereas Android has multiple different versions,
and phone manufacturers customize their Android phones, making it harder for
the IT folks to support and manage versus the tightly controlled Apple
platform. The diversity of Android makes
it more attractive in one sense, in that there can be more innovation, but that
is offset by the fact that it is less uniform.
Here's a blog post from the New York Times that talks about some of this: http://tinyurl.com/7o845ac
There
is a lot of speculation that Google might have to enter the hardware
business. Apple has a big advantage by
having control over its platform.
Google's advantage is that it can leverage many other manufacturers by
being an open source to them. The downside,
of course, is lack of uniformity and interoperability. So Google surely is thinking about making its
own smartphones and tablets. Maybe
designing the phones and tablets and letting others manufacture and sell it
under their label? That might be the way
to go. It's hard to compete with your
customers.
Like
the board game Risk, a superpower has to avoid a situation where its enemy gets
to a tipping point. Things go downhill
in a hurry after that. Think RIM.
It's
hard to believe, but just a few years ago Google's Eric Schmidt sat on the
board of Apple. Now these two behemoths are
locked in mortal combat. Kind of like
King Kong battling Godzilla. Us
customers are on the ground watching in fascination and trying to avoid getting
trampled. It would be perilous to
predict how this will turn out.